(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)
- Predicted for 4/5: (grabbed @ 8AM on 4/5, not updated since 4/1)
- 8 deaths (7-8), 39 deaths (37-42) total, 932 projected by 8/4
- ICU beds needed: 219 (174-266)
- peak predicted:
- 4/21-25, 36 deaths/day
- peak ICU beds needed: 545 (290-948)
- Actual for 4/5 (reported 11AM 4/6, current as of 4PM previous day)
- hospitalized: 115 (57 ICU)
- deaths: 1, total 30
Note that a lot of the predictions will change starting tomorrow, as there was a huge projection update on that site. The news seems to get better, but the error bars are getting huge.
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