(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)
I think I want to change up how I’m tracking this, since the lag is confusing even the guy who is grabbing the data. So this one will show the projections and yesterday’s results compared to projections a little bit more clearly.
I’m also considering just grabbing the whole week of projections, then updating the post with the 4PM data reported the next day. (That might require me to learn WordPress tables…)
- Predicted for 4/4: (grabbed @ 8AM on 4/5, not updated since 4/1)
- 6 deaths (6-7), 31 deaths (30-34) total, 932 projected by 8/4
- ICU beds needed: 192 (155-230)
- peak predicted:
- 4/21-25, 36 deaths/day
- peak ICU beds needed: 545 (290-948)
- Actual for 4/4 (reported 11AM, current as of 4PM previous day)
- hospitalized: 95 (42 ICU)
- deaths: 2, total 24
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