(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)
- 4/3: predicting 5 deaths (5-6), 25 deaths (24-27) total, 932 projected by 8/4
- Predicted: (grabbed @ 12 noon on 4/3, not updated since 4/1)
- peak predicted 4/21-25, 36 deaths/day
- ICU beds needed: 555 (290-948)
- Actual (reported 11AM, current as of 4PM previous day)
- hospitalized: 86 (40 ICU)
- deaths: 4, total 22
- Predicted: (grabbed @ 12 noon on 4/3, not updated since 4/1)
[Update 4/5/2020 8AM: forgot to put in the top line death predictions.]
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