4/13-4/14 Catching up with MN COVID-19 Projections vs. Actual

   April 15, 2020  Posted in COVID-19

(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)

  • 4/13:
    • Predicted for 4/13 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4/13)
      • 8 deaths (1-21),  76 deaths (53-124) total, 442 projected by 8/4
      • ICU beds needed: 82 (24-192) 
      • peak predicted:
        • 4/27:  12 deaths/day (3-37)
        • peak ICU beds needed: 127 (26-405) on 4/27
    • Actual for 4/13 (reported 11AM 4/14, current as of 4PM previous day)
      • hospitalized:  102 (75 ICU)
      • deaths:  9,  total 79
  • 4/14:
    • Predicted for 4/14 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4/14)
      • 9 deaths (0-36),  88 deaths (71-139) total, 656 projected by 8/4
      • ICU beds needed: 92 (13-315)
      • peak predicted:
        • 4/29:  17 deaths/day (3-58)
        • peak ICU beds needed: 155 (23-548) on 4/30
    • Actual for 4/14 (reported 11AM 4/15, current as of 4PM previous day)
      • hospitalized: 197 (93 ICU)
      • deaths:  8,  total 87