Last Friday’s news today: 4/10 COVID-19 projections vs. data

(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)

  • Predicted for 4/10 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4/10)
    • 8 deaths (3-21),  56 deaths (42-85) total, 456 projected by 8/4
    • ICU beds needed: 83 (39-162) 
    • peak predicted:
      • 4/26:  16 deaths/day (3-57)
      • peak ICU beds needed: 155 (37-505) on 4/26
  • Actual for 4/10 (reported 11AM 4/11, current as of 4PM previous day)
    • hospitalized: 138 (69 ICU)
    • deaths:  7,  total 57