(MN has now published some info on their model, but since it’s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use this one, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling. You’ll note a big jump on 4/14, possibly due to MN’s mistaken lumping of two days’ statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to “normal” after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)
- Predicted for 4/8 (grabbed @ noon on 4/8)
- 7 deaths (2-18), 41 deaths (36-52) total, 456 projected by 8/4
- ICU beds needed: 70 (33-138)
- peak predicted:
- 4/26: 16 deaths/day (3-57)
- peak ICU beds needed: 155 (39-483) on 4/26
- Actual for 4/8 (reported 11AM 4/9, current as of 4PM previous day)
- hospitalized: 145 (63 ICU)
- deaths: 11, total 50
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