{"id":351,"date":"2020-04-07T12:17:05","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T17:17:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=351"},"modified":"2020-04-07T12:17:05","modified_gmt":"2020-04-07T17:17:05","slug":"4-6-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/07\/4-6-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported\/","title":{"rendered":"4\/6 COVID-19 MN Projections vs. Reported"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p> (MN has now published <a href=\"https:\/\/mn.gov\/covid19\/data\/modeling.jsp\">some info<\/a> on their model, but since it&#8217;s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/projections\">this one<\/a>, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling.  You&#8217;ll note a big jump on 4\/14,  possibly due to MN&#8217;s mistaken lumping of two days&#8217; statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to &#8220;normal&#8221; after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Predicted for 4\/6 (grabbed @ noon on 4\/6, big <a href=\"http:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/covid\/updates\">update<\/a> 4\/5)<ul><li>7 deaths (1-25 (!!)),\u00a0 42 deaths (29-74) total, 625 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed: 79 (43-153)\u00a0<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/26:\u00a0 24 deaths\/day<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 228 (59-651) on 4\/25<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Actual for 4\/6 (reported 11AM 4\/7, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized: 242 (64 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:\u00a0 4,\u00a0 total 34<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicted for 4\/6 (grabbed @ noon on 4\/6, big update 4\/5) 7 deaths (1-25 (!!)),\u00a0&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","wpcat-21-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=351"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":352,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions\/352"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}