{"id":394,"date":"2020-10-31T21:06:52","date_gmt":"2020-11-01T02:06:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=394"},"modified":"2020-12-29T14:34:56","modified_gmt":"2020-12-29T19:34:56","slug":"perspective-on-the-mn-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/10\/31\/perspective-on-the-mn-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspective on the MN Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

So, remember way back in May when MN’s top model[er]s were projecting possible scenarios for lockdowns ending? I thought it might be interesting to compare some of the predictions to reality after a good solid 5-approaching-6 months of data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that I had to reverse-engineer the plots from the final report<\/a> available on the state’s website<\/a>, using WebplotDigitizer<\/a>, which is handy for things like this. It was either that or recreate it from the code they released, which was more than I was willing to take on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what I’ve plotted below are the following scenarios as presented in the last report linked above:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y1 – Unmitigated<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y5 – “S<\/strong>[tay-at]H<\/strong>[ome]O<\/strong>[rder] till 5\/18″<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y6 – SHO till 5\/31<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y8 – CDC Opening + Tx (Translation: follow the CDC’s opening-up guidelines, assumes some decent treatments for hospitalized patients.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actual – I hope I don’t have to translate this one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

[Note, the bump in the Y5 seems to be an errant incorrect point I missed deleting in the digitizer.] <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seems like, maybe, we haven’t been doing as badly as people — who supposedly know their line of work — thought we would, right? The full-year mortality on their models ranged from 22,000 to 57,000 dead. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although if you’ve been consuming only mainstream media this year, you are pretty sure we’re somewhere in the April 29ish range of Y1, aren’t you?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So, remember way back in May when MN’s top model[er]s were projecting possible scenarios for…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":398,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,10,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19","category-media-narrative","category-uncategorized","wpcat-21-id","wpcat-10-id","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=394"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":400,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394\/revisions\/400"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}