{"id":369,"date":"2020-04-25T14:39:57","date_gmt":"2020-04-25T19:39:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=369"},"modified":"2020-12-29T14:36:47","modified_gmt":"2020-12-29T19:36:47","slug":"369","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/25\/369\/","title":{"rendered":"About the MN Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

OK, so I finally read the whole Star Tribune article about the MN COVID-19 model<\/a>. Naturally I have things to blather on about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1) As a recovering controls guy, I’d say the MN model — at least for the ICU beds as seen above, which is the only plot with enough resolution to look at in that article — has the wrong lag and\/or damping factor built into their model for the current peak. If it applies (I’m not the only one who thinks it would, but you know, when you have a hammer…) it means the shape, height, and timing of the second peak is a bigger unknown than even they’re suggesting. (They also don’t explain how the phases of the model work, which may change my mind about the above.)
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2) I’m fairly sick of this attitude: “We think it’s important to emphasize the consequences of not doing that.” So they don’t produce a more realistic model of what the government might do, they just try to scare everybody. I know that lefties can’t believe this, but putting accurate information out there will produce the best results. Scaring people will cause a kickback that might put that peak in play even if it shouldn’t be. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure, produce that graph and have Walz show it, but don’t keep working on the “we sheltered for a month, now god help you all” model. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


3) The Washington model doesn’t assume MN is under deep isolation right now, although they’re talking about it as if it does. (My observation in my ~1\/wk visits to work and other trips agrees. We’re not reducing anything outside working and school interactions by even 50%, at least not inside the 494\/694 loop.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n


4) I’m getting wafts of “big, nasty, complex model” off of the MN one, which throws off big alarm bells. At least they’re running it with many of their fudge factors varied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


5) Epidemiologists are annoyingly like engineers: “If you were to ask any epidemiologist what the most common response to any question is, they would say ‘it depends.'” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OK, so I finally read the whole Star Tribune article about the MN COVID-19 model….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":370,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid-19","category-media-narrative","wpcat-21-id","wpcat-10-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=369"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":372,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/369\/revisions\/372"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}