{"id":365,"date":"2020-04-15T19:50:14","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T00:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=365"},"modified":"2020-04-15T19:50:14","modified_gmt":"2020-04-16T00:50:14","slug":"4-13-4-14-catching-up-with-mn-covid-19-projections-vs-actual","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/15\/4-13-4-14-catching-up-with-mn-covid-19-projections-vs-actual\/","title":{"rendered":"4\/13-4\/14 Catching up with MN COVID-19 Projections vs. Actual"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p> (MN has now published <a href=\"https:\/\/mn.gov\/covid19\/data\/modeling.jsp\">some info<\/a> on their model, but since it&#8217;s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/projections\">this one<\/a>, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling.  You&#8217;ll note a big jump on 4\/14,  possibly due to MN&#8217;s mistaken lumping of two days&#8217; statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to &#8220;normal&#8221; after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>4\/13:<ul><li>Predicted&nbsp;for 4\/13 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4\/13)<ul><li>8 deaths (1-21),&nbsp; 76 deaths (53-124) total, 442 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed: 82 (24-192)&nbsp;<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/27:&nbsp; 12 deaths\/day (3-37)<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 127 (26-405) on 4\/27<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Actual&nbsp;for 4\/13 (reported 11AM 4\/14, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized:&nbsp; 102 (75 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:&nbsp; 9,&nbsp; total 79<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>4\/14:<ul><li>Predicted&nbsp;for 4\/14 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4\/14)<ul><li>9 deaths (0-36),&nbsp; 88 deaths (71-139) total, 656 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed:&nbsp;92 (13-315)<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/29:&nbsp; 17 deaths\/day (3-58)<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 155 (23-548) on 4\/30<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Actual&nbsp;for 4\/14 (reported 11AM 4\/15, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized: 197 (93 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:&nbsp; 8,&nbsp; total 87<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>4\/13: Predicted&nbsp;for 4\/13 (grabbed @ 9AM on 4\/13) 8 deaths (1-21),&nbsp; 76 deaths (53-124) total,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","wpcat-21-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=365"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":366,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365\/revisions\/366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}