{"id":355,"date":"2020-04-09T12:07:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-09T17:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=355"},"modified":"2020-04-09T11:10:32","modified_gmt":"2020-04-09T16:10:32","slug":"4-8-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/09\/4-8-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported\/","title":{"rendered":"4\/8 COVID-19 MN Projections vs. Reported"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p> (MN has now published <a href=\"https:\/\/mn.gov\/covid19\/data\/modeling.jsp\">some info<\/a> on their model, but since it&#8217;s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/projections\">this one<\/a>, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling.  You&#8217;ll note a big jump on 4\/14,  possibly due to MN&#8217;s mistaken lumping of two days&#8217; statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to &#8220;normal&#8221; after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Predicted for 4\/8 (grabbed @ noon on 4\/8)<ul><li>7 deaths (2-18),&nbsp; 41 deaths (36-52) total, 456 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed: 70 (33-138)&nbsp;<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/26:&nbsp; 16 deaths\/day (3-57)<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 155 (39-483) on 4\/26<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Actual for 4\/8 (reported 11AM 4\/9, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized: 145 (63 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:&nbsp; 11,&nbsp; total 50<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicted for 4\/8 (grabbed @ noon on 4\/8) 7 deaths (2-18),&nbsp; 41 deaths (36-52) total,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","wpcat-21-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=355"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":356,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355\/revisions\/356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}