{"id":348,"date":"2020-04-06T12:45:41","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T17:45:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=348"},"modified":"2020-04-06T12:45:41","modified_gmt":"2020-04-06T17:45:41","slug":"4-5-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/06\/4-5-covid-19-mn-projections-vs-reported\/","title":{"rendered":"4\/5 COVID-19 MN Projections vs. Reported"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p> (MN has now published <a href=\"https:\/\/mn.gov\/covid19\/data\/modeling.jsp\">some info<\/a> on their model, but since it&#8217;s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/projections\">this one<\/a>, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling.  You&#8217;ll note a big jump on 4\/14,  possibly due to MN&#8217;s mistaken lumping of two days&#8217; statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to &#8220;normal&#8221; after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Predicted for 4\/5: (grabbed @ 8AM on 4\/5, not updated since 4\/1)<ul><li>8 deaths (7-8),&nbsp; 39 deaths (37-42) total, 932 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed: 219 (174-266)<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/21-25, 36 deaths\/day<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 545 (290-948)<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li>Actual for 4\/5 (reported 11AM 4\/6, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized: 115 (57 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:&nbsp; 1,&nbsp; total 30<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Note that a lot of the predictions will change starting tomorrow, as there was a huge projection update on that site.  The news seems to get better, but the error bars are getting huge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Predicted for 4\/5: (grabbed @ 8AM on 4\/5, not updated since 4\/1) 8 deaths (7-8),&nbsp;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","wpcat-21-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":349,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348\/revisions\/349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}