{"id":342,"date":"2020-04-05T08:36:59","date_gmt":"2020-04-05T13:36:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/?p=342"},"modified":"2020-04-05T08:38:04","modified_gmt":"2020-04-05T13:38:04","slug":"4-5-yesterdays-covid-19-results-todays-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/05\/4-5-yesterdays-covid-19-results-todays-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"4\/5 &#8211; Yesterday&#8217;s COVID-19 MN results vs. projections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p> (MN has now published <a href=\"https:\/\/mn.gov\/covid19\/data\/modeling.jsp\">some info<\/a> on their model, but since it&#8217;s not usable without spending more time than I intend, I continue to use <a href=\"https:\/\/covid19.healthdata.org\/projections\">this one<\/a>, which seems to be using a more general version of the same sort of modeling.  You&#8217;ll note a big jump on 4\/14,  possibly due to MN&#8217;s mistaken lumping of two days&#8217; statistics into one release over the weekend, or possibly just a return to &#8220;normal&#8221; after several days of fewer deaths than originally predicted.)   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think I want to change up how I&#8217;m tracking this, since the lag is confusing even the guy who is grabbing the data.  So this one will show the projections and yesterday&#8217;s results compared to projections a little bit more clearly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m also considering just grabbing the whole week of projections, then updating the post with the 4PM data reported the next day.  (That might require me to learn WordPress tables&#8230;) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Predicted <\/span>for 4\/4: (grabbed @ 8AM on 4\/5, not updated since 4\/1)<ul><li>6 deaths (6-7),\u00a0 31 deaths (30-34) total, 932 projected by 8\/4<\/li><li>ICU beds needed:\u00a0192 (155-230)<\/li><li>peak predicted:<ul><li>4\/21-25, 36 deaths\/day<\/li><li>peak ICU beds needed: 545 (290-948)<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Actual <\/span>for 4\/4 (reported 11AM, current as of 4PM previous day)<ul><li>hospitalized: 95 (42 ICU)<\/li><li>deaths:\u00a0\u00a02,\u00a0 total 24<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I think I want to change up how I&#8217;m tracking this, since the lag is&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","wpcat-21-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=342"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":346,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/342\/revisions\/346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stevegigl.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}